Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Zogby International has predicted that John Kerry is about to kick Dubya's ass, with 311 electoral votes to Bush's 213, and 14 too close to call.

Among the battleground states, Zogby gives the following to Kerry: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin.

Zogby puts the following states in the Bush column: Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. Colorado and Nevada remain too close to call.

Okay, now that we've got that out of the way, let me note that I remain unconcinced. Note that Zogby gives Kerry three states (Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) with 68 electoral votes to Kerry based on how they're trending. Given the uncertainty of this election, no candidate (or supporter) should give to much weight to the Zogby predictions.

In other words, if you haven't moved your ass to the polling place yet, DO IT! Hell, I did it, and I'm a New Yorker who has been written off by the national campaigns since around 1992. Also I'm lazy. So if you won't do this for yourself, do it for me.